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Binomial and normal distributions

Lessons 36 · 1 lessons · M. A. Mirzaahmedov, Sh. N. Ismailov, A. Q. Amanov (algebra and analysis), B. Q. Haydarov (geometry). Mathematics Grade 11, Parts 1 and 2, 1st edition. ZAMIN NASHR, Tashkent, 2018
36

The binomial and normal distributions

Textbook, Part 2: pp. 91–96
GoalGet to know the Bernoulli scheme, the binomial distribution and the normal distribution and use the formula P(n, m).
New words
Bernoulli scheme · Bernulli sxemasibinomial distribution · binomial taqsimotrandom variable · tasodifiy miqdornormal distribution · normal taqsimot
Explanation

If n independent trials are carried out under the same conditions and in each of them event A occurs with probability p (q = 1 − p), this is called a Bernoulli scheme. The probability that A occurs exactly m times is P(n, m) = C(n, m) pᵐ qⁿ⁻ᵐ: there are C(n, m) suitable sequences, each of probability pᵐqⁿ⁻ᵐ. The table of P(n, m) for m = 0, 1, …, n is called the binomial distribution; its entries add up to (p + q)ⁿ = 1. A quantity that takes this or that value as a result of an experiment is a random variable (for example the points on a die, a height, the number of defective items). Quantities shaped by many small random factors (height, measurement error) are normally distributed: the density function is f(x) = (1/(σ√(2π))) · e^(−(x − a)²/(2σ²)); its graph is a bell-shaped curve symmetric about x = a, where a is the centre and σ the standard deviation. About 68 % of values lie within a ± σ and 95 % within a ± 2σ. For large n the binomial distribution approaches the normal distribution.

Worked examples
A die is tossed 4 times. The probability of exactly two sixes: p = 1/6, q = 5/6, P(4, 2) = C(4, 2) · (1/6)² · (5/6)² = 6 · 25/1296 = 25/216 ≈ 0.116.
n = 3, p = 0.3, q = 0.7: P(3, 0) = 0.343; P(3, 1) = 3 · 0.3 · 0.49 = 0.441; P(3, 2) = 3 · 0.09 · 0.7 = 0.189; P(3, 3) = 0.027. The sum is 0.343 + 0.441 + 0.189 + 0.027 = 1. The most probable value is m = 1.
Class activity

“Rain of coins”: toss 6 coins together 40 times and record how many heads appear each time (0 to 6). Draw a histogram: does it look like a bell? What is the most frequent value? Compare it with the most probable theoretical value in the binomial distribution (3).

Practice
1
A coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of exactly one head?
2
A basketball player scores a free throw with probability 0.7, independently each time. What is the probability that all 3 throws score?
3
Height is normally distributed with a = 170 cm and σ = 6 cm. About what percentage lies between 164 and 176 cm?
4
Why do the probabilities of a binomial distribution add up to 1?